CONSUMER INSIGHTS | MARCH 2025

Absa Merchant Spend Analytics: January 2025

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Post-festive season slump hits consumer spending in January 2025.

The January 2025 card transaction data, as anticipated, demonstrated a MTM decline, reflecting a post-festive season spending lull.

The YTD card transaction data figures for January 2025 compared to January 2024 paint a more optimistic picture than the month-to-month data, suggesting a continued, albeit slightly moderated, upward trend in card spending. Card spending has seen a modest increase of 7% YTD Jan ’24, a slight uptick from the 6% growth recorded during the same period in 2024. Importantly, this growth continues to outpace the inflation rate, a positive sign for the economy and consumer purchasing power.

Key insights

The Consumer Team anticipates an increase in YTD card spending and transaction volumes in 2025 compared to 2024. However, several uncertainties remain. Global trade tensions, potentially intensified by a second Trump presidency, pose a significant risk to economic stability and consumer confidence. Moreover, the disinflationary environment that has prevailed for some time appears to be waning.

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