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CONSUMER INSIGHTS

Absa Merchant Spend Analytics Report:
October 2025

Absa | Corporate and Investment Banking > Insights and Events > Absa Merchant Spend Analytics Report: October 2025
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​October recovery sets the stage for retail’s anchor quarter

After September’s subdued activity, October’s Merchant Spend Analytics Report reflects a measured but meaningful rebound. Card spending increased by 4%, while transaction volumes rose 2%, supported by the highest average ticket value recorded this year. This steady improvement reinforces Q4’s reputation as retail’s stabilising force, offering early signs of renewed confidence.

Looking across three years of Black November insight, the report highlights how payment choices, value-conscious behaviour and the influence of payday continue to shape spending patterns during the peak retail period. These insights point to a consumer base that remains engaged, yet increasingly strategic in how they participate in seasonal promotions, giving retailers a clearer view of the expectations they can prepare for.

Key insights

On a year-to-date (YTD) basis, overall card spending remains positive, supported by October’s renewed momentum. Transaction volumes, however, continue to reflect cautious consumer behaviour, with growth relative to earlier months. Categories linked to essential goods and everyday spending show the greatest consistency, reinforcing the trend toward prioritised and value-driven purchases.

Although spending has rebounded, three years of Black November data indicate that consumers are becoming increasingly deliberate in how they engage with seasonal promotions. Payment choices, timing considerations and affordability pressures continue to shape both basket size and purchase timing during the peak retail period.

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