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CONSUMER INSIGHTS

Absa Merchant Spend Analytics Report:
December 2025

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​We are pleased to share the December 2025 edition of Absa’s Merchant Spend Analytics, which provides a view of festive season spending patterns and year‑end consumer behaviour.

December 2025 overview:

December recorded the expected seasonal uplift, with card spending rising 10% month‑on‑month and transaction volumes increasing 7%, underscoring the typical year‑end surge in consumer activity. However, on a year‑on‑year basis, both spending (‑3%) and transaction volumes (‑4%) declined, reflecting continued financial pressure on households. The YoY contraction is heavily influenced by weakness in high‑weight categories, particularly Food, which accounts for 44% of total spend. Despite this, pockets of resilience appeared in categories such as Government, Health & Beauty, and Education, which showed strong YoY growth momentum.

Key insights

On a year-to-date (YTD) basis, overall card spending remains positive, supported by October’s renewed momentum. Transaction volumes, however, continue to reflect cautious consumer behaviour, with growth relative to earlier months. Categories linked to essential goods and everyday spending show the greatest consistency, reinforcing the trend toward prioritised and value-driven purchases.

Although spending has rebounded, three years of Black November data indicate that consumers are becoming increasingly deliberate in how they engage with seasonal promotions. Payment choices, timing considerations and affordability pressures continue to shape both basket size and purchase timing during the peak retail period.

YTD: Online vs in‑store dynamics:

Online spending continues to grow at double‑digit rates, up 17% YoY, supported by strong demand in online Food and Transport (e‑hailing). In‑store spending remains dominant with a 90% share, although growth has softened to 1% YoY.

YTD: Credit vs debit usage:

Credit card usage accelerated sharply, growing 8% YoY, compared with debit card usage at 1% YoY - reinforcing the shift toward credit as consumers seek financial flexibility.

We have included a special inset on the Tourism sector's 2026 outlook, highlighting expected growth in international arrivals, the rebound of leisure travel, and the rising contribution of business travel.

This edition features card activity data from Black Friday 2025.

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